This study updates national arthroplasty projections using 19 years of CMS Medicare Part B data. It forecasts primary THA and TKA volume in Medicare patients to 2040 and 2060. The goal is to give health systems accurate demand estimates for resource and workforce planning.
These projections are the data behind the workforce and resource discussions that shape every arthroplasty practice you will join. The headline number to know: Medicare primary TJA is projected to grow 559% by 2060, with hip replacement growing faster than knee.
This matters for board reasoning because rising primary volume drives a proportional rise in revision burden, which is costlier and more complex. This paper updates and corrects the original 2007 Kurtz projections, which overestimated 2020 volumes by relying on older NIS data and ICD-9 codes. The lesson is that projection accuracy depends heavily on the data source and coding scheme.
Read the numbers with their main caveat in mind: by excluding patients under 65 and the privately insured, this Medicare model likely underestimates true demand as younger-patient arthroplasty grows.
This study updates national arthroplasty projections using 19 years of CMS Medicare Part B data. It forecasts primary THA and TKA volume in Medicare patients to 2040 and 2060. The goal is to give health systems accurate demand estimates for resource and workforce planning.
These projections are the data behind the workforce and resource discussions that shape every arthroplasty practice you will join. The headline number to know: Medicare primary TJA is projected to grow 559% by 2060, with hip replacement growing faster than knee.
This matters for board reasoning because rising primary volume drives a proportional rise in revision burden, which is costlier and more complex. This paper updates and corrects the original 2007 Kurtz projections, which overestimated 2020 volumes by relying on older NIS data and ICD-9 codes. The lesson is that projection accuracy depends heavily on the data source and coding scheme.
Read the numbers with their main caveat in mind: by excluding patients under 65 and the privately insured, this Medicare model likely underestimates true demand as younger-patient arthroplasty grows.