This Level III prognostic study used the National Inpatient Sample (2002–2011, n=427,841 procedures) and Poisson regression to quantify shoulder arthroplasty demand in patients ≤55 years. It projects how total volume and procedure mix will evolve through 2030, and contrasts these trends with hip and knee arthroplasty patterns.
Every young patient you take to the OR for a shoulder arthroplasty is a patient you will likely revise — or someone will. The absolute number of ≤55-year-olds undergoing shoulder arthroplasty is rising by 333% through 2030, and these patients have higher complication rates, higher revision rates, and longer lives ahead of them than your typical shoulder arthroplasty recipient.
When counseling a patient ≤55 years with end-stage glenohumeral arthritis, informed consent must address the near-certainty of revision over their lifetime. Hemiarthroplasty has already been largely abandoned in this age group. Down from 53.6% to 34.2% of procedures in under a decade. So the conversation is increasingly TSA vs. Non-arthroplasty alternatives, with TSA showing superior outcomes and survivorship.
This paper also reframes the shoulder vs. Hip/knee comparison that comes up on boards: unlike hip and knee, where young patients are projected to dominate procedure volume, young shoulder patients will remain a small minority (4% by 2030). The driving force behind overall shoulder arthroplasty growth is older patients and the reverse shoulder arthroplasty revolution. Not a younger patient surge.
This Level III prognostic study used the National Inpatient Sample (2002–2011, n=427,841 procedures) and Poisson regression to quantify shoulder arthroplasty demand in patients ≤55 years. It projects how total volume and procedure mix will evolve through 2030, and contrasts these trends with hip and knee arthroplasty patterns.
Every young patient you take to the OR for a shoulder arthroplasty is a patient you will likely revise — or someone will. The absolute number of ≤55-year-olds undergoing shoulder arthroplasty is rising by 333% through 2030, and these patients have higher complication rates, higher revision rates, and longer lives ahead of them than your typical shoulder arthroplasty recipient.
When counseling a patient ≤55 years with end-stage glenohumeral arthritis, informed consent must address the near-certainty of revision over their lifetime. Hemiarthroplasty has already been largely abandoned in this age group. Down from 53.6% to 34.2% of procedures in under a decade. So the conversation is increasingly TSA vs. Non-arthroplasty alternatives, with TSA showing superior outcomes and survivorship.
This paper also reframes the shoulder vs. Hip/knee comparison that comes up on boards: unlike hip and knee, where young patients are projected to dominate procedure volume, young shoulder patients will remain a small minority (4% by 2030). The driving force behind overall shoulder arthroplasty growth is older patients and the reverse shoulder arthroplasty revolution. Not a younger patient surge.