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Growth and Predictions of Growth in the Lower Extremities.

·J Bone Joint Surg Am·1963·531 citations·Pediatrics
PubMed
SummaryAbstract on PubMed →

Anderson, Green, and Messner followed 100 children with annual orthoroentgenographic measurements through skeletal maturity. The study quantifies how much growth remains in the distal femur and proximal tibia at each skeletal age level. It asks: which predictor — skeletal age or chronological age — most precisely estimates remaining lower-extremity growth for surgical planning?

Study Snapshot

Design
Longitudinal cohort study
Setting: Children's Hospital Medical Center, Boston
Funding: NIH (NIAMD)
Objective
Whether skeletal age predicts remaining lower extremity growth better than chronological age
Outcome(s)
Growth remaining in distal femur and proximal tibia by skeletal age
Subjects
100 children (50 girls, 50 boys), ages 8–18
Inclusion
  • Continuous serial record from age 8 (girls) or 10 (boys) to maturity
  • Annual orthoroentgenographic measurements
Follow-up
8 years until epiphyseal fusion
Statistics
Means and standard deviationsCorrelation coefficientsPercentile distributions

Key Findings

  • Skeletal age cuts prediction error by up to 60% compared to chronological age — because children of the same calendar age differ dramatically in physiologic maturity.
    –Using skeletal age 14y3m instead of chronological age 14, the SD of remaining femoral growth dropped from 1.78 cm to 0.71 cm in boys.
    –This is why a bone age radiograph precedes every epiphyseodesis — chronological age alone is too imprecise during adolescence.
  • 71% of femoral growth originates at the distal physis; 57% of tibial growth originates at the proximal physis.
    –These two sites are the primary epiphyseodesis targets precisely because they contribute the majority of longitudinal growth.
    –Arresting the wrong physis — proximal femur or distal tibia — would yield far less length correction.
  • Skeletal maturity is the dominant predictor of remaining growth, with correlation peaking at r = −0.92 in girls (age 12) and r = −0.88 in boys (age 13).
    –Current femoral length, by contrast, correlates near zero with remaining growth (r = −0.03 to −0.45).
    –Do not use a child's current bone length to estimate how much more it will grow.
  • Chronological age is reliable only up to age 11 in girls and age 13 in boys.
    –After these thresholds, maturity variation is so large that chronological-age-based predictions become clinically impractical without skeletal age adjustment.
  • Average distal femoral growth remaining at skeletal age 10y3m differs substantially by sex:
    –Girls (50th %ile): 4.1 cm (10th–90th %ile range: 3.3–5.0 cm)
    –Boys (50th %ile): 7.2 cm (10th–90th %ile range: 5.3–8.9 cm)
    –Use sex-specific charts — conflating the two introduces multi-centimeter planning errors.
Board PearlUse skeletal age, not chronological age, to predict remaining femoral and tibial growth — it reduces prediction error by up to 60%.

Clinical Relevance

Every child with limb length discrepancy who walks into your clinic is asking: 'How much bigger will this gap get, and when should you operate?' Before this paper, the answer was based on chronological age — a predictor so imprecise during adolescence that two 12-year-old boys could have growth estimates differing by several centimeters.

This paper is why you order a bone age radiograph at every evaluation. When planning epiphyseodesis, locate the child's skeletal age on the Anderson-Green growth chart, read off the distal femoral or proximal tibial growth remaining (with its percentile range), and adjust for whether the child trends tall or short and whether their skeletal age has been consistently advanced or delayed.

Remember the two numbers that define your surgical targets: the distal femoral physis contributes 71% of femoral growth, and the proximal tibial physis contributes 57% of tibial growth. Arresting these two sites is precisely why epiphyseodesis works.

One nuance worth knowing: the growth on the shorter side in the 2-3 years before surgery matters more than the total historical discrepancy. A chronically inhibited limb will gain less correction than the chart predicts. Factor that in before you commit to a timing.

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|

Growth and Predictions of Growth in the Lower Extremities.

·J Bone Joint Surg Am·1963·531 citations·Pediatrics
PubMed
SummaryAbstract on PubMed →

Anderson, Green, and Messner followed 100 children with annual orthoroentgenographic measurements through skeletal maturity. The study quantifies how much growth remains in the distal femur and proximal tibia at each skeletal age level. It asks: which predictor — skeletal age or chronological age — most precisely estimates remaining lower-extremity growth for surgical planning?

Study Snapshot

Design
Longitudinal cohort study
Setting: Children's Hospital Medical Center, Boston
Funding: NIH (NIAMD)
Objective
Whether skeletal age predicts remaining lower extremity growth better than chronological age
Outcome(s)
Growth remaining in distal femur and proximal tibia by skeletal age
Subjects
100 children (50 girls, 50 boys), ages 8–18
Inclusion
  • Continuous serial record from age 8 (girls) or 10 (boys) to maturity
  • Annual orthoroentgenographic measurements
Follow-up
8 years until epiphyseal fusion
Statistics
Means and standard deviationsCorrelation coefficientsPercentile distributions

Key Findings

  • Skeletal age cuts prediction error by up to 60% compared to chronological age — because children of the same calendar age differ dramatically in physiologic maturity.
    –Using skeletal age 14y3m instead of chronological age 14, the SD of remaining femoral growth dropped from 1.78 cm to 0.71 cm in boys.
    –This is why a bone age radiograph precedes every epiphyseodesis — chronological age alone is too imprecise during adolescence.
  • 71% of femoral growth originates at the distal physis; 57% of tibial growth originates at the proximal physis.
    –These two sites are the primary epiphyseodesis targets precisely because they contribute the majority of longitudinal growth.
    –Arresting the wrong physis — proximal femur or distal tibia — would yield far less length correction.
  • Skeletal maturity is the dominant predictor of remaining growth, with correlation peaking at r = −0.92 in girls (age 12) and r = −0.88 in boys (age 13).
    –Current femoral length, by contrast, correlates near zero with remaining growth (r = −0.03 to −0.45).
    –Do not use a child's current bone length to estimate how much more it will grow.
  • Chronological age is reliable only up to age 11 in girls and age 13 in boys.
    –After these thresholds, maturity variation is so large that chronological-age-based predictions become clinically impractical without skeletal age adjustment.
  • Average distal femoral growth remaining at skeletal age 10y3m differs substantially by sex:
    –Girls (50th %ile): 4.1 cm (10th–90th %ile range: 3.3–5.0 cm)
    –Boys (50th %ile): 7.2 cm (10th–90th %ile range: 5.3–8.9 cm)
    –Use sex-specific charts — conflating the two introduces multi-centimeter planning errors.
Board PearlUse skeletal age, not chronological age, to predict remaining femoral and tibial growth — it reduces prediction error by up to 60%.

Clinical Relevance

Every child with limb length discrepancy who walks into your clinic is asking: 'How much bigger will this gap get, and when should you operate?' Before this paper, the answer was based on chronological age — a predictor so imprecise during adolescence that two 12-year-old boys could have growth estimates differing by several centimeters.

This paper is why you order a bone age radiograph at every evaluation. When planning epiphyseodesis, locate the child's skeletal age on the Anderson-Green growth chart, read off the distal femoral or proximal tibial growth remaining (with its percentile range), and adjust for whether the child trends tall or short and whether their skeletal age has been consistently advanced or delayed.

Remember the two numbers that define your surgical targets: the distal femoral physis contributes 71% of femoral growth, and the proximal tibial physis contributes 57% of tibial growth. Arresting these two sites is precisely why epiphyseodesis works.

One nuance worth knowing: the growth on the shorter side in the 2-3 years before surgery matters more than the total historical discrepancy. A chronically inhibited limb will gain less correction than the chart predicts. Factor that in before you commit to a timing.

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